Abstract:
Dendroctonus armandi is a destructive insect of Pinus armandi, it caused serious economic losses annually to the forest industry in China. Determination of the potential geographical distribution of
Dendroctonus armandi is an important factor for effectively controlling the spread of this pest. In this study, the niche model MaxEnt and Diva-gis were employed to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of
Dendroctonus armandi, the ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and the Jackknife analysis was adopted to analyze the most important environmental factors that affect the occurrence of
Dendroctonus armandi. The results show that
Dendroctonus armandi had a concentrated distribution regions:the south of the Shaanxi Province, the northeast of the Sichuan Province and the southeastern Gansu Province. Four dominant climatic factors controlling
Dendroctonus armandi distribution were determined, including the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, the precipitation seasonality, the temperature seasonality and the precipitation in the coldest quarter. Here, we analyze the relationship between dominant climatic factors and the probability of the pest presences, and suggest a thinking way for the further research.