Abstract:
This paper presents the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) system, which has been developed with complex terrain adaptability at the Austrian National Weather Service. As the proposed nowcasting system by WWRP/WMO Forecast Demonstration Project INCA-CE, it has been widely used in more than ten countries and regions in the world. INCA sets up high resolution system terrain, surface-layer index and vertical coordinates. The analysis part of the system combines surface station data with remote sensing data in such a way that the observations at the station locations are reproduced, whereas the remote sensing data define the spatial structure of meteorological variables through interpolation. The nowcasting part employs classical correlation-based motion vectors derived from previous consecutive analyses, and in the case of precipitation the nowcast includes an intensity-dependent elevation effect. Because the INCA system implements the fine description of the mountainous terrain and takes full account of the influence of terrain on the element fields, INCA has certain advantages in the mountainous area with complex topography. It can do well as a technical nowcasting and warning system in areas at risk of mountain torrents and geological disasters. INCA improves nowcasting of convective cells by using a decision algorithm which is based on a subset of the convective analysis fields, combined with satellite products. A physical approach of parameterizing gusts related to thunderstorms was developed. Intense downdrafts and convective out flow are partially determined by the amount of negative buoyancy and precipitation load, which are assessed from radar reflectivity observations and nowcasts. Cross validation of the analysis and verification of the nowcast are performed. Analysis quality is high and significant added value of the system compared to the NWP forecast is found in the first few hours of the nowcast. It is shown that the pure translational forecast of convective cells can be improved by using a decision algorithm of some key convective diagnostics, and the improvement is particularly evident in mountain areas.