近60年荆州四季趋变特征及给作物生长影响的对策

Temporal Change and Trend Analysis of the Four Seasons in Jingzhou During the Past 60 Years and the Countermeasures in the Crop Growth

摘要: 根据荆州站1955—2017年逐日气温资料，在研究四季长度和起始时间变化特征的基础上，利用Mann-Kendall检验等方法对季节的时间变化趋势进行研究。结果表明，季节长度变化上，荆州夏季季长有极显著的增加趋势（P<0.01），秋、冬两季季长有极显著的缩短趋势（P<0.01）；即夏季以延长为主，秋、冬季主要表现为缩短，而春季季长无明显变化。其中，夏季的延长趋势率最大（0.3725），冬季缩短的趋势率（－0.247）大于秋季缩短趋势率（－0.1559）；季节起始日上，冬、秋两季起始日期有极显著的推后趋势（P<0.01），春、夏季则表现为极显著的提前趋势（P<0.01）。

Abstract: According to the daily temperature data, the seasonal duration and beginning date for 1955- 2017 at jingzhou station, the seasonal time change trend was studied by using the Mann-kendall test and other methods. The results show that the growth season in Jingzhou and summer prolonged significantly (P< 0.01), while autumn and winter shortened significantly (P< 0.01). The spring had no obvious change. The extension rate (0.3725) in summer was the largest one, the shortening rate (-0.247) in winter was greater than that in autumn (-0.1559). The seasonal beginning date delayed significantly in winter and autumn (P< 0.01), while spring and summer were ahead of time significantly (P< 0.01).