Abstract:
This paper compares global weather forecast models of leading operations centres with their forecast skills based on reviews of literature and websites of World Meteorological Centers named by WMO. The skill scores currently applied in assessing core forecasting capabilities of leading operational centres are discussed. The skill scores of 2025 and 2035 are projected based on the progress-curves of forecast skill evolution over the past 10 years or more. Although the advance of forecast skill would obviously slow down, the improvement of skillful forecasts will be evident. Forecast lead of 500 hpa geopotential height would be 8.5 and 10.5 days by 2025 and 2035, respectively. The corresponding values would be 7.6 and 8.4 days for high resolution models and both 10 days for multi-model meteorological element forecasts. Prediction skills of Niño 3.4 SST anomaly for the next 3 months and the next 6 months are likely to reach 93% and 86% in 2025, and 96% and 90% in 2035. The MJO forecast lead might be 49 days in 2025. New predictors, next generation numerical models and improved data assimilation are key players in further advancing forecast skills.