Abstract:
Based on the MICAPS conventional observation data, regional automatic station, satellite cloud pictures, and Doppler weather radar data on June 28 and 29, 2013 in Qinhuangdao area, a local torrential rain process was analyzed. Several numerical products from the aspects of circulation situation, influence system, and precipitation elements were inspected. The results showed that the mesoscale convective complexes and super monomer in linear echo mainly contributed to the short-time strong rainfall in the northern mountainous area. The heavy rain area was located in the TBB maximize gradient. Yanshan mountain terrain lifting effect and mesoscale wind field convergence triggered this process. The numerical model products had certain ability in forecasting rainstorm, but the heavy precipitation center predicted was deviated to the north and failed to capture the heavy rainstorm area > 100 mm. Different numerical models produced different results in terms of the position and intensity of the heavy rain. ECMWF mode was more accurate in predicting mid- and upper-level air circulation in the Asian region, but it was less accurate in predicting weak upper trough system. When all numerical prediction models predicted to rain in the cold vortex weather situation, the precipitation level was consistent or similar. When the Japanese FAX forecasted about 25 mm rainfall in the vicinity of Qinhuangdao, the precipitation level in the northern mountainous area of Qinhuangdao can be increased by an order of magnitude or larger by including the topographical effects. Because the numerical prediction was difficult to incorporate the terrain effect, the prediction was usually unsatisfactory at the small-meso scale system.