Abstract:
Due to the uncertainties in both initial condition and model physics, ensemble prediction has been becoming the norm of numerical weather prediction as supercomputers become increasingly powerful. It is a paradigm shift in weather prediction practice from a single forecast to an ensemble of forecasts, which allow forecasters and users see a range of possibilities instead of a single deterministic one. This paper briefly reviews the development of both global and regional ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in Europe, including their current status, issues and future plans. Specifically, the topics are (1) operational global EPS at ECMWF; (2) operational high resolution regional EPS in various European countries; and (3) a discussion about related issues, challenges and future plans. Since the storm scale is a future trend of EPS development, we have paid a particular attention to the development and application of high-resolution EPS besides the global ECMWF EPS. It is our hope that this review will not only shed lights on scientific and technical aspects of EPS development but also its operational application.