集合敏感性分析在北半球中纬度高影响天气中的应用

Applications of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to High-Impact Weather Systems in the Middle Latitudes of Northern Hemisphere

  • 摘要: 总结回顾了集合敏感性分析(ESA)在诊断中纬度高影响天气预报不确定性中的应用。作为一个简单高效且不需要大量计算资源的方法,集合敏感性分析主要被应用在中纬度气旋、台风或飓风的温带转换,以及在强对流过程中诊断预报误差和不确定性的来源。集合敏感性方法极有灵活性,可以根据实际需要改变不同的预报变量和初始场。在对2010年美国东岸圣诞节暴风雪的分析中,集合敏感性分析通过三种形式来诊断了预报不确定性的初值敏感性,即基于EOF分析的敏感性、预报差别的敏感性,以及基于短期预报误差的向前积分敏感性回归。三种方法证实气旋路径的不确定性主要和位于美国南部大平原的短波槽初始误差相关。此外,气旋强度的不确定性还和产生于北太平洋向下游延伸的罗斯贝波列相关。集合敏感性分析方法对于分析中纬度气旋的不确定性、诊断初值敏感性、分析误差发展机制都非常有效。

     

    Abstract: In this article, we provide a short review on the applications of ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) to high-impact weather events in mid-latitude of Northern Hemisphere. As an efficient and computationally inexpensive method, ESA has been applied to diagnose the forecast uncertainties in the extratropical cyclones, typhoons/hurricanes and their extratropical transitions, convective processes, etc. This method is very flexible: one can adjust its forecast metrics and/or state vectors based on the practical needs. ESA was applied in three different ways to diagnose the uncertainty in predicting a high-impact winter storm in December 2010 based on the choice of forecast metrics: sensitivity using the EOF approach, sensitivity using run cycle difference, and forward sensitivity regression using short-range forecast errors. All these three approaches confirmed that the track’s uncertainty for this cyclone was linked to the initial uncertainty in the short-wave trough over the southern Great Plains based on the 50-member ECMWF ensemble. Moreover, the cyclone intensity uncertainty was associated with the trough and ridge systems embedded in a Rossby wave train over the Northeast Pacific and the central U.S. Therefore, the ESA method is very robust for midlatitude cyclones in analyzing their forecast uncertainty, determining initial-condition sensitive regions, and diagnosing the mechanism for the error growth.

     

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