Abstract:
Based on hourly precipitation of four stations from 2006 to 2013 in Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and radar sounding data in Kashi, the occurrence regularity and interdecadal variation of short-term storm in Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture was analyzed. Results show that most of the short-term storm events were observed from May to September, with a peak in June or July. Most of them happened at afternoon and the first half of the night. Based on the evolution of circulation at 500 hPa, the influencing circulation patterns could be categorized to the following four patterns: 1) low vortex in Central Asia or low trough eastward, 2) low vortex in Baikal Lake, 3) low vortex (trough) in Kabul, and 4) frontal zone southward. The conceptual models were developed for those four patterns which could cause short-term storm events. The physical parameters in radar sounding from typical historical cases were analyzed. Meanwhile, the potential forecast was available from the adjusted sounding data, and the adjusted index from forecast sounding could be inspected as well. The V-3 theta sounding data had obviously heterogeneous structure and Pot-bellied shape, and wind vector had obviously clockwise flow. The radar data in Kasgar indicated that the short-term storm had the following characteristics: echo's intensity varied between 45-60 dBz, echo's top height was 5.0-9.0 km, maximum vertical accumulated liquid water varied from 4-40 kg/m
2, the height of strongest center ranged from 1 to 7 km, and the convection with echo stronger than 35 dBz lasted at least one hour at local stations.