新疆南疆西部干旱地区短时强降水预报方法及指标

Forecast Method and Index of Short-Term Storm in the Arid Region of Southwestern Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 利用新疆维吾尔自治区克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州(简称“克州”)4个站点2006—2013年逐时降水量实况资料、喀什雷达及探空资料,分析了克州地区短时强降水的发生规律及年代际变化特征。结果表明:1)克州地区短时强降水多出现在5—9月,尤以6—7月最多,且多出现于午后及前半夜;2)着眼于500 hPa环流形势演变,对影响克州地区短时强降水天气出现的影响系统进行分型,主要有中亚低涡或低槽东移型、巴尔喀什湖(以下简称巴湖)低涡型、喀布尔低槽(涡)型、锋区南压型4种类型,并归纳分析了上述4种影响系统造成各类短时强降水天气的概念模型;3)利用典型历史个例中探空资料物理参数进行分析,得到一些统计特征,同时利用探空订正来进行潜势预报,并对得出的预报探空及订正指标进行检验;4)探空资料V-3θ图显示强降水具有明显的非均匀结构、存在明显的大肚状,风矢结构为明显的顺滚流;5)利用喀什雷达资料对克州短时强降水得出指标:回波强度在45~60 dBz、回波顶高在5.0~9.0 km、强降水回波最大垂直累积液态含水量在4~40 kg/m2、强中心所在高度在1~7 km、≥35 dBz的对流回波在本站持续1 h。

     

    Abstract: Based on hourly precipitation of four stations from 2006 to 2013 in Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and radar sounding data in Kashi, the occurrence regularity and interdecadal variation of short-term storm in Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture was analyzed. Results show that most of the short-term storm events were observed from May to September, with a peak in June or July. Most of them happened at afternoon and the first half of the night. Based on the evolution of circulation at 500 hPa, the influencing circulation patterns could be categorized to the following four patterns: 1) low vortex in Central Asia or low trough eastward, 2) low vortex in Baikal Lake, 3) low vortex (trough) in Kabul, and 4) frontal zone southward. The conceptual models were developed for those four patterns which could cause short-term storm events. The physical parameters in radar sounding from typical historical cases were analyzed. Meanwhile, the potential forecast was available from the adjusted sounding data, and the adjusted index from forecast sounding could be inspected as well. The V-3 theta sounding data had obviously heterogeneous structure and Pot-bellied shape, and wind vector had obviously clockwise flow. The radar data in Kasgar indicated that the short-term storm had the following characteristics: echo's intensity varied between 45-60 dBz, echo's top height was 5.0-9.0 km, maximum vertical accumulated liquid water varied from 4-40 kg/m2, the height of strongest center ranged from 1 to 7 km, and the convection with echo stronger than 35 dBz lasted at least one hour at local stations.

     

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