重庆地区青少年溺亡风险气象预警研究

Meteorological Early Warning Study on Youth Drowning Risk in Chongqing

  • 摘要: 为防范青少年溺亡事件的发生,研究了青少年溺亡风险气象预警方法。通过分析重庆地区135起青少年溺亡事件,根据影响人体舒适度的气象因子以及主观判断,确定以温度、相对湿度、日照时数和降水量作为溺亡预警气象指标,用线性回归的方法比较了溺亡事件发生前5日、10日、15日及20日各气象指标与溺亡事件发生当日平均温度的相关关系,确定了溺亡事件发生前10日的气象指标与溺亡事件发生当日的日平均气温相关系数最大,即溺亡事件发生前10日的气象因子与溺亡事件发生的关系最密切;通过主成分分析,确定了溺亡事件发生前10日的日平均温度是溺亡事件发生的重要因子,平均最高温度、平均最低温度和平均相对湿度是影响溺亡事件发生的主要气象因子;最后根据主成分分析的结果,建立溺亡事件气象预警模型,并对溺亡风险进行了等级划分。最后,结合实例对预警方法进行了验证,结果表明该方法具有一定可行性。

     

    Abstract: In order to prevent the occurrence of youth drowning, we studied a meteorological warning method for youth drowning risk. By analyzing 135 cases of adolescent drowning in Chongqing, and considering the meteorological factors affecting human comfort and subjective judgment, temperature, relative humidity, hours of sunshine and precipitation are identified as the meteorological indicators of drowning warning. Compared the correlations between the meteorological indicators and the average daily temperature on 5, 10, 15 and 20 days before the drowning incident by linear regression, it is determined that the meteorological factors of the 10 days prior to the drowning event had the largest correlation coefficient with the average daily temperature on the day of the drowning event. By principal component analysis, it was determined that the average daily temperature of the 10 days prior to the drowning event was an important factor in the occurrence of the drowning event, and that the average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature and average relative humidity are the main meteorological factors that influence the occurrence of drowning. Finally, according to the results of principal component analysis, an early warning model of drowning events is established and the risk of drowning is classified. The warning method is validated with examples and the results show that it is feasible.

     

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