不同数值预报产品对武陵山区降水预报性能检验

详细信息

Test of Precipitation Forecast Performance of Different Numerical Forecast Products in Wuling Mountain Area

摘要: 对2018年3月—2019年6月ECMWF、GRAPES-GFS、JAPAN、GERMAN预报产品与对应相关格点值，采用相关系数法、均方根误差法、TS评分检验法进行检验。结果发现：四种模式中，降水预报均与本站实况有显著的相关性，但ECMWF模式降水产品24～48 h晴雨预报TS评分优于其他模式，均方根误差也小于其他模式，同时进一步发现各家模式季节性降水预报及0.1～9.9 mm预报具有较高一致性。
- 数值预报产品 /
- 武陵山区 /
- 降水性能检验
Abstract: The correlation coefficient method, root mean square error method and TS score test method were used to test the ECMWF, GRAPES-GFS, JAPAN, GERMAN forecast products and their corresponding grid values from March 2018 to June 2019. The results showed that: among the four models, the precipitation forecast had significant correlation with the actual situation of the station, but the TS score of 24-48 h clear rain forecast of ECMWF model was better than that of other models with smallest mean square. At the same time, it is found that the seasonal precipitation forecast and 0.1-9.9 mm forecast of each model have high consistency.
- numerical forecast products /
- Wuling Mountain area /
- test of precipitation performance