中小尺度对流系统的高分辨率数值模拟近况和未来挑战

High-Resolution Modeling of Convective Storms:Progress and Future Challenges

  • 摘要: 随着高速、大容量、并行计算能力的迅速增长和中尺度数值模式的不断完善,近年来不断涌现使用1 km乃至次千米网格距开展中、小尺度对流系统的数值模拟研究。这些数值模拟工作展现出目前观测手段还无法得到的动力学一致的高分辨率气象信息,大大提高了对一些中、小尺度对流系统内部结构和演变的理解。但高分辨率数值模拟的未来发展也面临着不少问题和挑战。首先回顾提高模式分辨率至1 km乃至次千米模拟中、小尺度对流系统的进展,并综述目前在高分辨率数值模拟中的资料同化和物理过程处理方法,同时指出中尺度模式中处理积云对流、大气边界层和辐射过程时值得注意的分辨率“灰色区”,然后介绍使用1 km和次千米分辨率模拟中、小尺度对流系统的几篇有代表性的工作。最后讨论高分辨率数值模拟的未来发展和挑战。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid growth of fast, massive parallel computing power and steady improvement in mesoscale numerical models, there have been a growing number of numerical modeling studies of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) using kilometer and sub-kilometer grid resolutions. These simulations have provided tremendous high resolution, dynamically consistent meteorological information that could not be obtained from current observations, and they have greatly improved our understanding of the internal structures and evolution of MCSs. However, some significant challenges remain in the future development of high-resolution numerical modeling. This paper reviews the progress that has been made in modeling convective storms with progressively increasing spatial resolution to one kilometer and sub-kilometer, and then introduces convective-scale data assimilation techniques and the approaches to the implementation of some important physical processes into mesoscale numerical models, including the “gray zone” problem associated with moist convection, planetary boundary layer, and radiation processes. Some typical studies on high-resolution (kilometer or sub-kilometer scale) simulations of convective storms are also presented. The future development and challenges in high-resolution simulation are finally discussed.

     

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