Abstract: There lacks a systematic and quantifiable safety evaluation model or method for weather modification operation of 37mm antiaircraft guns.This paper puts forward a method of calculating the probability of safety accidents caused by large fragments of projectiles, half explosion, misfire and ground explosion, etc.The calculation method, which is based on the statistical method and the static test data, is proposed on the analysis of the relevant hazard sources and their dynamic processes during operations.And an operation in Heihe City, Heilongjiang Province is taken as an example.The probability of safety accidents of three types of products in accordance with the“ technical requirements for antiaircraft artillery systems of weather modification”is calculated and compared.The results show that the probability of safety accidents is small for the products meeting the technical requirements.However, further analysis is still necessary.Weather modification ammunition should be managed according to different levels, and the corresponding grade of ammunition should be selected based on local conditions.Manufacturers should focus on improving product performance, and operators should strengthen operation safety control.