国际主流多源融合降水实况产品的研究进展与展望

Advances and Outlook for International Mainstream Multi-Source Precipitation Merging Products

  • 摘要: 精细、精准、高时效的网格降水实况产品对于智能网格预报业务、防灾减灾以及水循环、地气相互作用具有重要意义。从20世纪90年代起,利用地面观测、卫星、雷达、模式等多源资料和数据,美国、日本、欧盟等先后开始研制降水融合产品,并形成一系列区域或全球范围的多源融合降水实况产品。目前全球降水实况产品中,美国NASA研发的Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM(IMERG)产品已推出第六代,将数据覆盖范围扩大至全球,结合地球同步红外数据、微波数据、地面雨量计数据等,形成具有较高时空分辨率的降水融合产品。日本推出的GSMaP产品使用了PMW(Passive Micorwave)算法、降雪估算算法等方法,也研制出了具有较高质量的降水产品。区域高分辨率降水实况产品方面,美国最新业务化的MRMS(Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System)系统研制的雷达QPE(quantitative precipitation estimation)产品基于雷达基数据、地面雨量计数据、模式数据等,结合先进的技术在美国区域生成了1 km、2 min更新的降水实况产品。我国多源降水融合技术的研究起步较晚,自2010年起逐步开展研究,2018年国家气象信息中心牵头,中国区域逐时、5 km分辨率的地面卫星、雷达三源融合降水实况产品实现业务运行,作为零时刻实况应用于我国无缝隙智能网格预报业务,2021年该产品空间分辨率将提高至1 km。但同时需意识到,我国降水实况业务产品与灾害天气监测预警、高频次滚动更新的智能预报、智慧气象服务业务需求以及国际最先进降水实况产品研制技术尚有差距,全球降水产品还未摆脱对国际产品的依赖,及时掌握国际多源融合降水研制技术研究动态,开展降水融合核心技术的调研和攻关,对提高我国降水实况产品质量具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: Precise, accurate and highly efficient grid precipitation real-time products are of great significance for intelligent grid forecasting, disaster prevention and reduction, water cycle and land-atmosphere interaction. Since the 1990s, the United States, Japan and the European Union have successively started to develop precipitation fusion products using ground observation, satellite, radar, model and other multi-source data and formed a series of regional or global multi-source fusion precipitation realtime products. At present, among the global precipitation real-time products, the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) product developed by NASA of the United States has launched the sixth generation, expanding the data coverage to the whole world, combining the geosynchronous infrared data, microwave data, ground rain gauge data, etc., and forming a precipitation fusion product with high spatial and temporal resolution. The GSMaP product launched by Japan adopted PMW (Passive Microwave) algorithm, snow estimation algorithm and other methods, and developed high quality precipitation products. In terms of regional high-resolution precipitation real-time products, the radar QPE (Quantitative precision estimation) product developed by the latest operational MRMS (Multi Radar/Multi Sensor System) of the United States has generated 1km, 2 min updated precipitation products in the United States based on radar raw data, ground rain gauge data, model data, etc.. The research on multi-source precipitation fusion technology in China started relatively late and has been gradually carried out since 2010. In 2018, the National Meteorological Information Center took the lead, and the real-time precipitation fusion product of hourly and 5 km resolution, which integrated ground-based data, satellite data and radar data, was applied in the operational forecast . As a real-time product, it has been used in China’s seamless smart grid forecasting operation. And the spatial resolution of the product was increased to 1km in 2021. However, it is necessary to realize that there is still a gap between Chinese real-time precipitation products and the demand for disaster weather monitoring and warning, high-frequency rolling update of intelligent forecasting and smart meteorological services. The gap also exists between our products and the most advanced technology in international precipitation real-time product development. Our global precipitation products are still heavily dependent on international products. Hence it is of great significance to follow the latest development of technologies in international multisource integrated precipitation products and carry out research targeting for the core technologies of precipitation fusion products so as to improve the quality of precipitation real-time products in China.

     

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