基于偏差分析的风力预报订正释用技术

Correction and Interpretation Technology for Wind Speed Forecast Based on Deviation Analysis

  • 摘要: 本文利用浙江舟山嵊泗、定海、普陀、岱山四个站点的10 m风实况资料,深入分析2019—2020年的欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)10 m风格点预报产品偏差,并构建了订正模型,使用2021年的数据对订正模型进行独立检验,得到如下结论:①站点0~33 h逐3 h的预报实况误差绝对值较为稳定。②站点前后时次平均风预报实况误差,存在一元线性关系,且系数稳定。③站点平均风极大风关系与地形遮蔽、风力大小、下垫面等有关,一元二次模型能更精确地反映两者关系。④指标站平均风预报实况绝对误差分别精减至1.16 m/s、0.86 m/s、0.94 m/s、0.94 m/s,改进百分比分别为12%、62%、17%、10%,极大风平均绝对误差分别为2.12 m/s、2.58 m/s、2.69 m/s、2.86 m/s。总体上应用成效较好,可应用于实际业务。

     

    Abstract: Based on the 10 m wind data of Shengsi, Dinghai, Putuo and Daishan stations of Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, this paper analyzes the EC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) 10 m wind forecast product deviation of 2019-2020. The revised model is constructed accordingly, and the data of 2021 are used to independently test the model. The research results show that: ① the absolute values of the actual every 3-h forecast errors at the stations from 0 to 33 hours are relatively stable. ②The errors of mean wind forecast at different times have a univariate linear relationship with stable coefficient. ③The relationship between the mean and extreme wind at the stations is associated the terrain shielding, wind force and underlying surface. The unitary quadratic model can reflect the relationship more accurately. ④ The average absolute errors of mean wind at the index stations are reduced to 1.16 m/s, 0.86 m/s, 0.94 m/s and 0.94 m/s respectively; the improvement percentage are 12%, 62%, 17% and 10%, respectively; and the average absolute errors of extreme wind are 2.12 m/s, 2.58 m/s, 2.69 m/s and 2.86 m/s respectively. In general, the application effect of the correction and interpretation technology is satisfactory and can be applied to operational wind speed forecast.

     

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