Abstract:
Combined with various numerical models, the weather system, environmental conditions, TBB characteristics and radar echo characteristics of the local heavy rain in Anshun City from August 10 to 11, 2021 are analyzed by using NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data, regional automatic station observation data, radar data and FY-2G satellite data to reflect on the local heavy rain weather forecast during that period of time. The results show that (1) The local rainstorm has obvious characteristics of night rain and convective precipitation; (2) The heavy rain in the north of Anshun City is caused by the low trough around the subtropical high combined with cold air, while the heavy rain in the west of Anshun City is triggered by the strengthening of the northward uplift of the inverted trough in southern Yunnan; (3) The synoptic system leading to the heavy rainfall in the north is relatively deep, while the synoptic system causing the rainstorm in the west is relatively shallow; (4)The main reasons for the underreporting of the local heavy rain are the prediction deviation of the intensity and position of the east-west movement of the subtropical high and the prediction deviation of the development of the inverted trough in southern Yunnan.