1961—2023年乌鲁木齐河流域多时空尺度气温变化特征分析

Analysis of Multi-Spatiotemporal Scale Air Temperature Variation Characteristics in the Urumqi River Basin during 1961-2023

  • 摘要: 基于乌鲁木齐河流域5个国家级气象站1961—2023年逐日气温资料,利用线性倾向估计、多项式拟合、滑动平均、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了乌鲁木齐河流域气温在不同海拔和不同时间尺度的变化趋势,旨在为流域生态环境治理及保护提供科学依据。结果表明:1)乌鲁木齐河流域气温随海拔升高呈下降趋势,垂直递减率为0.41℃/(100 m);在海拔>3000 m的高山带多年平均气温<0℃,在海拔<2000 m的区域多年平均气温>0℃,0℃线大致位于海拔2500 m左右区域。2)气温垂直递减率月变化呈“单峰”型分布,最大出现在6月和7月,均为0.70℃/(100 m),12月最小。3)流域气温在研究期内总体呈上升趋势,其中绿洲区升温最显著,线性升温率为0.51℃/(10 a),低山带升温最小,线性升温率为0.25℃/(10 a);不同区域气温在研究期内均发生了由低到高的突变,且升温显著,其中绿洲区发生突变时间早于其他区域。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily temperature data from five national meteorological stations in the Urumqi River Basin from 1961 to 2023, the air temperature variation at different altitudes and time scales were analyzed using methods including linear trend estimation, polynomial fitting, moving average, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall test. The aim is to provide a scientific basis for the ecological environment governance and protection in the Urumqi River Basin. The results show that: 1) The temperature in the Urumqi River Basin decreased with increasing altitude, with a lapse rate of 0.41℃/ (100 m). In the alpine zone above 3000 m, the multi-year average temperature was below 0℃, while in the area below 2000 m, the multi-year average temperature was above 0℃. The 0℃ line was approximately located at the altitude of 2500 m. 2) The monthly variation of the temperature lapse rate showed a "single-peak" distribution, with its maximum occurring in June and July, at 0.70℃/ (100 m), and the minimum in December. 3) The temperature in the Urumqi River Basin showed an increasing trend during the study period. The most significant warming was observed in the oasis zone, with a linear warming rate of 0.51℃/ (10 a), while the smallest warming rate was observed in the low-mountain belt, at 0.25℃/ (10 a). Temperature in all regions experienced an abrupt change from low to high during the study period, accompanied with significant warming. The abrupt change occurred earlier in the oasis zone than in other regions.

     

/

返回文章
返回