天气和气候的可预报性

Predictability of Weather and Climate

1. Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;
2. CMA Training Center, China Meterological Administration, Being 100081

摘要: 从理论和实际角度描述了天气和气候可预报性的认识过程。天气和气候的可预报性，特别是10～30天预报依赖于空间和时间尺度，预报包含了可预报分量和混沌分量。可预报性研究的最大挑战，来自气象极端事件的可预报性问题。
- 可预报性 /
- 天气和气候
Abstract: The evolution of the understanding process for the predictability of the weather and climate is described both in the view of theory and practice. The predictability of weather and climate, especially for 10~30 d forecasting, depends on the spatial and temporal scales, and the forecasting includes predictable components as well as chaotic components. The biggest challenge in the study of predictability comes from the issue for meteorological extreme events.
- predictability /
- weather and climate

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1. Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;
2. CMA Training Center, China Meterological Administration, Being 100081