Review of the Progress of Dynamical Extended-Range Forecasting Studies

The extended-range forecasting (ERF) fills the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and short-range climate forecasting. It plays an important role in disaster prevention and reduction, and it is often considered a difficult scientific problem. Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather, there are still partially predictable characteristics in such forecasts. Both history and development studies on dynamical extended-range forecasting (DERF) are reviewed. Based on chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere, extended-range predictability, the role of historical data in DERF and the extended-range ensemble prediction method are reviewed and summarized.