Monthly Anomaly and Weather Process Forecast System and Its Application

This paper introduces the framework, feature and application of extended-range (Monthly) Anomaly and Process Forecast System (MAPFS 1.1) consisting of three precipitation process forecast modules (i.e., the low-frequent map, anomaly similarity and 150d cycle method modules) as well as the EOF-iteration downscaling module for monthly precipitation anomaly. Up to now, MAPFS 1.1 has been used in operation or in provisional operation in the climate centers of ten provinces or cities in China. The results indicate that extended-range (10-30d) heavy rainfall prediction accuracy from ten centers during the rain season of 2012 is, on average, up to 67.7%, and particularly that of six centers is larger than 60 %.