The Causal Chain Analysis of Natural Factors for China Surface Temperature Variation during the Recent 100 Years

The attribution analysis of China surface temperature(TC) in the recent 100 years is done from the angle of the astronomical factor(sunspot number, SSN) and the earth movement factor(polar shift x direction and y direction) by using Granger causality test. The results are as follows: (1) SSN is not the Granger cause of TC in all of 1 to 11 years lags; (2) when the lag is 6 years, confidence is the highest, at this time polar shift x direction is the Granger cause of TC (87% confidence); (3) when the lag is 12 years, TC is the Granger cause of the polar shifty direction, the confidence is 86%. The research results of the paper suggest that the change of polar shift x direction possibly results in the change of TC, and the change of TC possibly influences the change of the polar shiftydirection.