The Progress of WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project

The “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)” was started in May 2010, with an aim to improve the typhoon landfall forecast service for World Expo 2010 and enhance the ability of forecasters and decision-makers to effectively use products of the most advanced typhoon forecasting techniques in the world. The project continued after the World Expo 2010 and will end in 2015. Up to now, the project has set up a platform integrating the most advanced typhoon forecasting guidance in the world. The forecast guidance for typhoon track, intensity, and precipitation has been evaluated in both real-time and post-season manners, which helps in understanding the reliability of typhoon forecasts. Breakthroughs have been made in terms of new verification techniques for typhoon forecast and new consensus forecast techniques based on available guidance. An evaluation index system has been proposed covering the indices for both the deterministic and probabilistic typhoon forecasts. These efforts have effectively demonstrated and promoted the application of advanced typhoon forecasting techniques in operation.