Evaluation of Three Forecasting Models to Area Rainfall Prediction in Upstream of Yangtze River

Using the daily area rainfall of observation and three forecasting models in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River from 2007 to 2008, based on TS scoring methods, the capability is inspected of the models to heavy prediction over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.Test results show that the three models are of different precipitation forecasting capacity:the score of Japan's JMH Model is 38.5%; the score of China's T213 model is 28.2%; the score of Germany GER model is 26.9%.Based on the qualitative assessment of precipitation area, a linear regression equation is established for precipitation forecast products and the precipitation.