A Possibility of the Warm Sea Surface Temperature in Tropical Atlantic to Promote La Niña Events

First of all, we did fi nd that there are obvious correlations among the Atlantic SST in spring, the MJO anomalies in summer and the Pacifi c ENSO in winter. Secondly, two La Niña events respectively followed the top 2 powerful El Niño events in 1982 and 1997 after 1951. Thirdly a super strong El Niño event appeared in 2015. In this paper, the characteristics of the spring Atlantic SST and the summer MJO signals in 1983, 1998 and 2016 are compared. Then the changes of SST in autumn and winter 2016 are forecasted. The results show that the SST in defi ned key area of Atlantic occurred an abnormal warmer status in spring 2016, and was similar to that in 1998; the MJO may likely be abnormally active in Indian Ocean in summer 2016, in a much greater extent. These mean that a moderate La Niña event in tropical Pacifi c will probably occur in the autumn and winter 2016.