Distribution Features of Earth Temperature at 80 cm in China and Prediction Method Based on the Factor of Solar Radiation

Temporal and spatial distribution of earth temperature in China was analyzed based on the daily mean earth temperature at 80cm for 2001-2010. Meanwhile, the correlation of earth temperature with solar radiation was analyzed; the earth temperature prediction model was constructed by taking solar radiation as the predictor. The results show that earth temperature presents similarly seasonal variation in various depths, and reaches a ridge in summer then dropped to trough in the next spring. The long-term evolution demonstrated a rising tendency. We found that the correlation of the 60-day lagged earth temperature to the solar radiation become better after a 30-day moving average on each of the two series. Then, we constructed a prediction model to forecast the periodic fl uctuation of the earth temperature, and got a higher accuracy. Thus this model may be applied in the future.