Verification of the Extreme Precipitation Forecast from SMS-WARMSV2.0

The precipitation forecasts from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), The Global Forecast System (GFS), and Shanghai Meteorological Service WRF ADAS Real-Time Modeling System 2 (SMS-WARMSV2.0)models were compared by using statistical verification methods for year 2016. In addition to routine daily evaluation, some extreme rainfall events were also included in the comparisons. O multiple statistical scores of the ETS, TS, TSS, and PODY, the SMS-WARMSV2.0 shows better skill in the prediction of light and heavy rainfalls compared to ECMWF and GFS. The advantage of SMS-WARMSV2.0 over other two global models is especially true for heavy and extreme rainfall events. This suggests the regional model has improved skill in the prediction of extreme rainfalls comparing to global models.