A Study of Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast

Ensemble numerical weather prediction plays essential roles to medium-range weather forecast, and also becomes more popular in regional short-range weather forecast. Since hazardous convection weather systems have very high nonlinearity, complex moist microphysics processes, and very high temporal and spatial variation, the numerical prediction for such events are more challenged. It is thus more desire to employ ensemble technique to storm-scale weather prediction. This paper reviews key scientific questions, ensemble technique used, current status, main challenges and problems faced in storm-scale ensemble forecast.