Comparison of Winter Wheat Output Forecast Methods in Jingzhou

The data for sunshine duration, precipitation, daily temperature, development stage and yield of winter wheat between 1970 and 2016 in Jingzhou were used in this research for establishing an output forecast method. A meteorological influence index and a climatic suitability index were tested to compare the forecast accuracy. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the meteorological influence index method was higher than the climatic suitability index, and its calculation is relatively simple.Under the premise that the prediction accuracy is relatively stable, the optimal date for winter wheat harvest is April 10th in Jingzhou, according to the model forecast.