Test of Precipitation Forecast Performance of Different Numerical Forecast Products in Wuling Mountain Area

The correlation coefficient method, root mean square error method and TS score test method were used to test the ECMWF, GRAPES-GFS, JAPAN, GERMAN forecast products and their corresponding grid values from March 2018 to June 2019. The results showed that: among the four models, the precipitation forecast had significant correlation with the actual situation of the station, but the TS score of 24-48 h clear rain forecast of ECMWF model was better than that of other models with smallest mean square. At the same time, it is found that the seasonal precipitation forecast and 0.1-9.9 mm forecast of each model have high consistency.