Analysis of Potential Cultivation of Flue-Cured Tobacco in Henan under Future Climate Scenarios

The impact of climate change on crop pattern changes is attracting widespread attention. Based on the geographical distribution information of flue-cured tobacco planting in Henan Province, the maximum entropy model and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology are used to screen out eight leading climate factors (cumulative contribution rate of more than 85%) affecting the potential planting distribution of flue-cured tobacco from the growth period scale. The factors are the active accumulated temperature at root extension stage ≥10 ℃, rainfall at root extension stage, rainfall at field stage, rainfall during growing period, active accumulated temperature at maturity stage ≥10 ℃, relative humidity at field stage, daily range at maturity stage and active accumulated temperature at growing period ≥10 ℃. The relationship model between planting distribution and climate of fluecured tobacco in Henan Province is established accordingly. The climatic characteristics of different planting distribution areas of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province, the interdecadal variation during 1961-2010 and the interdecadal variation of potential planting distribution in 2050s and 2070s under climate change scenarios are analyzed. The results show that the maximum entropy model is suitable for simulating the potential planting distribution of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province, and that the accuracy of the relationship model reaches the standard of “good” (AUC value was 0.821). From 1981 to 2010, the potential growing area of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province accounted for 57.7% of the total area, which was larger than the current growing area. The decadal change shows that the potential growing area of flue-cured tobacco in Henan Province has been increasing since 1970s, which indicates that there is still a large development space for flue-cured tobacco production in Henan Province. In the future climate scenario in Henan Province, the potential planting area of flue-cured tobacco will also increase and will be significantly affected by the RCP4.5 scenario. Hence the future climate change will be beneficial to the expansion of flue-cured tobacco growing areas in Henan.